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View PDF. I want to also acknowledge the presence of our good friends in the C- SPAN viewing audience, and we appreciate all the work that C- SPAN does to bring our policy work and the policy work of our fellow think tanks to people around the country, especially at this critical time. We at Hudson are especially delighted as well to welcome the British ambassador to the United States, Sir Kim Darroch, here to Hudson Institute for a discussion that could hardly be more timely, given developments back home, developments in Brussels over this weekend.
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Central to our work is promoting a great deal of work on U. We have various initiatives on U. And we have a very long history of work on the U. K and the U.
Our work today on U. Now, of course, no one is better suited in Washington to give us a better sense of the current dynamics over Brexit, the future of U. Prior to serving as national security adviser, Sir Kim was the U. Permanent Representative to the EU from to , most notably during the Eurozone crisis, and prior to that period, he was the EU adviser to the prime minister. Walter Russell Mead: Thank you, Ken. Thanks for being here. Sir Kim, Ambassador Darroch, what do you prefer? Walter Russell Mead: All right. So can you tell me what the state of play is? Sir Kim Darroch: Yeah.
I thought we might do other subjects rather than Brexit today, actually. Sir Kim Darroch: Just joking. And I say that having done 15 years of my career on European Union work.
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She has delivered what the British people voted for, which is an orderly, smooth exit from the European Union, on the basis of this deal. So in the sense of trying to find — remember, the Brexit vote was quite close. I mean, it was and-a-bit million to 16 million — 52 percent to 48 percent. So the prime ministers have to try to find a balance between those who are concerned about the impact of Brexit and those who are enthusiastic about it. And though, as Jean-Claude Juncker said at the conclusion of the European Council yesterday, this is the best deal that can be done.
And so he hopes that he gets the support of the British Parliament in December, as do I. Sir Kim Darroch: At the moment, it looks — I mean, she has got, first of all, support from the cabinet. That was about 10, 12 days ago. She has now got support from the other 27 European Union leaders. This is the third stage. And no one would deny that it looks quite a tight rope to get across, to get this vote in Parliament. If you are a strong supporter of Remain and you vote against this deal, then you are risking a new deal, halt Brexit, which most observers believe would be highly disruptive, if not chaotic and could be quite damaging to the economy.
So this is the right way through. But I was back in London last week as it happens, and they are confident, inside the government, that they can get a majority for this.
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Walter Russell Mead: By very cleverly having an unwritten constitution. Written makes it hard for foreigners to figure out where things are going. But if the government were to lose the vote on Brexit, is that the kind of vote that normally breaks up a government, and you get an election or a new prime minister? Sir Kim Darroch: I mean, what the government is carefully avoiding saying is what they will were the vote to be lost.
And so if you are, you know, representing constituents, which MPs are doing, then you might think quite carefully about where the public view is. But I mean, as a technical matter, if the government lost the vote, then they would have to decide where to go next, whether to proceed to leaving without a deal, which is an option, or whether to ask for an extension or find some other way forward. Walter Russell Mead: Would they need to have another vote in Parliament before a hard exit, or do they just — if they do nothing and the date for Brexit arrives, then the U.
You would probably get different answers. Walter Russell Mead: One of the key issues in the negotiations, as they went forward, was the question of the Irish border. I gather they, right now, seem very skeptical of the deal. Sir Kim Darroch: Well, I think they have 10 members of Parliament, and they were in full agreement to support the government. So you see, those are 10 significant votes, given how tight things are in Parliament. But the Prime Minister has really made exceptional efforts to deliver a deal which does what she promised, which is no re-establishment of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
That was her promise, and that is what she has delivered. So she has absolutely gone to the edge to deliver on what she has promised on that. And you now have the transitional period — the implementation period. While we stay, basically, within a customs arrangement with the EU, there will be no need for a hard border or any re-establishing border controls in Northern Ireland. The intention is, in that month period, that we will do a deal with the EU that keeps trade as frictionless as possible.
And I have to put it in those terms because we also want to do free trade deals with the rest of the world. So we have to find a balance going forward on that. But we think we can do a trade deal with the EU that keeps trade as frictionless as possible. That means a minimum of controls on borders.
That would keep the border open. The EU sells a lot of stuff to us, and we do in the other direction. Then, presumably, Britain will need a foreign policy for post-Brexit. What — and you talk about free trade agreements. Presumably, Britain will want some kind of free trade agreement or trade agreement with the United States. What would that look like? What is Britain hoping to achieve? We have a leadership role in the Commonwealth. We will continue to cooperate on foreign policy and union. We are global players in terms of defense. We are — we have military people — often very small numbers, but stationed in dozens of countries around the world.
So we feel we are good global players, and the intention is that that will continue, if not be enhanced in the future. In terms of a free trade deal with the U. And that should ultimately, we hope, involve improved no-tariff, no-quota access for goods from us coming into the — from the U. Walter Russell Mead: What about people? I mean, certainly, a lot of American bankers are in London and others.
But I know immigration — is migration sensitive in both countries? I mean, the post-Brexit immigration arrangements — we know broadly where the direction we are going in, but the detail still has to be finalized. But the likelihood is, after Brexit, a profile — we still are a country that will have people coming in because we need them for our workforce. But a profile may change, so it will be fewer from Europe and more from the rest of the world. And we tell these companies that we value their presence in the U.
We want them to expand. And we will adopt immigration policies that give them the kind of supply of talent that they need. Walter Russell Mead: Is the U.